If you’ve been searching Zillow in Seattle, WA or watching the Seattle real estate headlines, you’ve probably heard rumors of a housing crash. It’s a common fear—especially with rising interest rates, more homes for sale, and a shifting job market. But is Seattle really heading for a real estate meltdown in 2025?

The short answer: no, not likely.

This year’s market looks different, but it’s not collapsing. Instead, it’s rebalancing. And while some headlines might stir fear, the actual data tells a more nuanced story. Let’s break it down with three key factors—housing supply, mortgage health, and local employment—to see where Seattle’s market truly stands.

1. Inventory Is Up, but That Doesn’t Mean a Crash

One of the biggest indicators people point to when talking about a crash is the rising number of homes for sale. And it’s true—inventory has increased across both Seattle and the Eastside.

Key Stats on Listings:

• Seattle (April 2024): 915 new listings

• Seattle (April 2023): 775 new listings

• Year-over-year increase: 29.2%

And it didn’t stop there. Into 2025, active listings continued to climb:

• Eastside listings: Up 138%

• Some Seattle areas: Up 47.19%

In June alone:

• 2023: 1,576 homes listed

• 2024: 2,155 homes listed

• 2025: 2,959 homes listed (a 37.3% jump)

What This Means

Rising inventory doesn’t automatically signal a crash. In fact, this uptick reflects a market correcting from years of low supply. Between 2020 and 2022, inventory was so tight that home prices skyrocketed. Now, sellers—many of whom were holding off due to rising interest rates—are finally returning to the market.

Despite more listings, Seattle is still in a seller’s market. Homes typically sell in under 4 to 6 months, and current inventory sits at just 2.6 months. That's higher than previous years, but still below what economists consider a balanced market.

Home Prices Are Still Rising

Median sale prices haven’t dropped. In fact, they continue to rise slightly, signaling steady demand. Unless inventory continues to flood the market and buyer demand falls drastically, a crash isn’t likely.

2. Mortgage Delinquencies Remain Low

Another sign of a crashing market is a surge in missed mortgage payments. But in Seattle, that’s not happening.

Delinquency Rates:

• National average (2024): 3.98%

• Seattle average (2024): 1.8%

That’s a strong performance. Even though the delinquency rate rose slightly from 1.2% in 2022 to 1.8% now, it’s still well below national norms. Serious delinquencies (90+ days late) are holding steady at just 0.9%.

Why This Matters

Low delinquency rates mean most homeowners can still afford their mortgages. It also suggests that Seattle’s housing market has a strong foundation. Unlike the 2008 crash—when foreclosures spiked—today’s market is still supported by stable lending and strong household finances.

3. Job Market Shifts, But Stability Remains

Seattle's economy, especially the tech sector, plays a major role in its housing market. So, are job losses a sign of danger?

Job Growth Slowing, Not Stopping:

• 2022: 5% growth

• 2023: 2% growth

• 2024: 0.7% growth

• 2025: Projected 0.3% decline

Yes, growth has slowed. Seattle lost about 9,000 jobs in the year leading up to May 2025, especially in tech.

But even with layoffs at Amazon, Microsoft, and other tech firms, unemployment remains below historical averages:

• Seattle unemployment (2025): 3.9%

• King County unemployment (2025): 4.1%

• Long-term average: 5.05%

Other Sectors Are Growing

• Education and healthcare: +11,800 jobs

• Professional/business services: +3,400 jobs

• Hospitality: +1.2% growth

• Manufacturing and construction: Some declines, but not severe

So while the tech slowdown has affected the Eastside market more directly, broader economic activity is keeping Seattle’s job base relatively stable.

So… Is the Seattle Housing Market Crashing?

Not even close.

Here’s what we’re really seeing:

• More homes for sale – Yes, inventory is up, but it’s still a seller’s market.

• Stable mortgage health – Delinquencies are well below national averages.

• Slower job growth, not collapse – Tech has taken a hit, but other sectors are strong.

Seattle is moving toward a more balanced market, not a crashing one. Buyers now have more options. Sellers may have to adjust expectations slightly. But overall, the fundamentals are strong.

Final Thoughts

A real crash would require a sharp spike in inventory, a plunge in buyer activity, high interest rates, soaring mortgage delinquencies, and widespread job loss. Right now, none of those conditions are in play.

If you're looking to buy or sell in Seattle, this market still presents opportunities—you just need the right guidance. Want help navigating it? Let’s talk. Schedule a free consultation today and get clarity on your next move.