If you follow national housing headlines, you have probably seen plenty of takes about a “reset,” a “crash,” or a “rebound” coming in 2026. Redfin recently released 11 specific predictions about where the U.S. housing market is headed, from mortgage rates and home sales to rents, roommates, politics, climate, and even artificial intelligence. But national reports rarely tell the full story of what is happening on the ground in Seattle. My name is Brennan Klaus, and I am a full-time real estate agent in Seattle, Washington. I have helped more than 325 buyers and sellers across neighborhoods like Capitol Hill (98102), Ballard (98107), Queen Anne (98109), West Seattle (98116, 98126), and many more. In this post, I break down Redfin’s 11 housing market predictions for 2026 and share where I think they are mostly right, where they are oversimplifying things, and how these trends are likely to show up in our local Seattle market.
What Redfin Is Predicting for 2026
Below is a simple breakdown of Redfin’s 11 predictions, with a quick look at how each one works at the national level.
Mortgage Rates Dip into the Low 6% Range
Redfin expects the 30-year fixed rate to average around 6.3% in 2026, down slightly from about 6.6% in 2025. The idea is that slightly lower rates modestly improve affordability and bring more buyers back into the market.
Affordability Improves as Wages Outpace Home Prices
Redfin expects median U.S. home prices to rise only about 1% year-over-year, while wages grow faster. That gap, they argue, should slowly improve affordability over time.
Home Sales Rise 3%
Redfin predicts home sales (the number of transactions, not prices) will rise about 3%, from roughly 4.1 million annual sales to about 4.2 million. That is still historically low, but slightly better than the slow years following the pandemic boom.
Rents Rise as Demand Stays Strong
Redfin expects apartment demand to remain strong and rental supply to tighten, causing rents to rise in many markets as buying a home remains out of reach for some.
High Housing Costs Reshape Households
The prediction here is more roommates and fewer babies. High housing costs and economic uncertainty may cause more people to share housing and delay starting families or moving up into larger homes.
Affordability Crisis Unites Policymakers
Redfin suggests the housing affordability crisis will push leaders across party lines to introduce more policies, potentially including a declared national housing emergency and new efforts to expand housing supply.
More Americans Refinance and Remodel
With rates drifting into the 6% range, Redfin expects more homeowners to refinance from higher rates and choose to remodel their existing homes instead of moving.
Some Regions Heat Up, “Zoom Towns” Cool Down
Redfin expects housing markets near New York City and in parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest to heat up, while boomtowns like Austin, Nashville, and some Sun Belt “zoom towns” cool as remote work patterns settle and commuters move closer to job centers.
Climate Migration Goes Hyper-Local
Instead of just moving from one state to another, Redfin predicts buyers will make more nuanced choices within the same region based on wildfire risk, flooding, storms, and insurance costs.
NAR Steps Back and Local MLSs Take the Lead
They predict that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will allow local MLSs and major brokerages/platforms to drive more of the change, leading to consolidation, new rules, and shifting relationships between big players like Zillow, Real, Compass, etc.
AI Becomes a “Real Estate Matchmaker”
Redfin expects artificial intelligence to play a much bigger role in how people search for homes—moving from filters and forms to conversational tools that surface listings, support agents, and help buyers and sellers make decisions.
What This Means for Seattle
Now let’s talk about how these predictions land specifically in Seattle.
Mortgage Rates and Seattle Demand
If rates hover around the low 6% range, I do expect more buyers to re-enter the Seattle market, especially in neighborhoods like Ballard, Greenwood (98103), and West Seattle. However, local affordability is still a challenge, and rate drops often cause more demand as soon as the news hits. In Seattle, this can mean more competition—not necessarily cheaper homes.
Prices, Wages, and the Tech Labor Market
Nationally, Redfin is focused on wage growth versus home prices. In Seattle, I watch something slightly different: the broader tech and professional labor market. Layoffs or aggressive hiring from companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and other major employers on the Eastside directly affect demand for condos in South Lake Union and single-family homes in neighborhoods like Bellevue and Kirkland.
We have already seen some softening in resale prices for people who bought at peak pandemic pricing and are now trying to sell after just a few years. At the same time, truly turnkey homes with great layouts and locations still sell quickly and sometimes above list.
Sales Volume: Will Seattle See More Transactions?
I do think we may see slightly more sales in Seattle if:
Rates stabilize or improve
Sellers with low-rate mortgages feel more confident about testing the market
Job confidence improves
But if we have another round of major layoffs or economic uncertainty, that could temper activity even if rates cooperate.
Rentals and Roommates
If buying remains tough, I expect more people to stay in rentals or share housing, especially in higher-demand neighborhoods like Capitol Hill, Wallingford, and Fremont. That often keeps rental demand strong, which can support higher rents. Landlords and small investors will be watching this closely.
Zoning, Density, and ADUs in Seattle
On the policy side, Seattle has already moved ahead with rezoning and additional density—especially through allowing ADUs and DADUs in many single-family zones. This has contributed to more diverse inventory, including smaller “single-family” homes that live like condos or backyard cottages.
In practice, this has allowed some buyers to get into properties that are $200,000–$300,000 less than a traditional single-family home on its own lot. That is one way the city is already trying to address affordability, and I expect that role to grow rather than shrink.
Climate and Micro-Location
Climate concerns in Seattle are very real, but they tend to show up more in specific questions:
Is this home in a landslide or flood-prone area?
Is it retrofitted for earthquakes?
What is the wildfire smoke pattern and air quality like?
How does insurance treat this location or building?
I am already seeing buyers think about which parts of Queen Anne, Magnolia, or the Duwamish Valley feel comfortable from a climate and risk standpoint. That is not new in 2026, but I expect it to intensify.
AI and How Seattle Buyers Search
AI tools will make it easier for buyers to go beyond simple filters on zillow in seattle wa or realtor com seattle and instead have conversations like, “Show me townhomes in Ballard with off-street parking, built after 2010, within 20 minutes of South Lake Union.” Those tools are already rolling out and will become normal over the next year or two.
But even as AI does more matching, local context and human negotiation are still critical. Knowing how to structure offers, interpret inspection reports, and navigate nuances in individual buildings and blocks is where a local agent still matters.
My Take as a Seattle Real Estate Agent
From my perspective on the ground as a Seattle real estate agent, here is how I would summarize Redfin’s predictions for our market:
I generally agree that rates in the low 6% range are realistic. That likely leads to more activity but not necessarily lower prices.
I am more cautious about the idea that affordability will truly “improve” in a meaningful way for most buyers in Seattle. Some segments will soften, others will remain highly competitive.
I do expect more people to stay put and remodel rather than trade up, especially if they are sitting on a rate in the 2–4% range.
I see zoning, density, and small-lot housing as one of the most meaningful local levers for affordability—Seattle is ahead of the curve in that area.
AI will change search and agent workflows, but it is more of an evolution than a sudden overnight shift.
The key for buyers and sellers is to stop relying only on national headlines, and instead pair them with hyper-local data and strategy.
Key Takeaways
Redfin’s predictions for lower rates and slightly more home sales in 2026 are plausible, but in Seattle that may translate into more competition rather than dramatically cheaper homes.
Affordability in Seattle will depend heavily on the tech and professional labor market, not just national wage growth.
Zoning changes, ADUs, and added density are already shaping more attainable options within the city.
Climate and micro-location will continue to influence where buyers choose to live within the metro area.
AI will make searching for homes smarter and more conversational, but local expertise and strategy will remain essential.
If you are trying to make sense of what 2026 might look like for your specific situation—whether you are planning to buy, sell, or hold in the Seattle area—let’s talk. I am happy to walk through your neighborhood, price point, and timing so you can make decisions based on real local data, not just national predictions.
