On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023. Within a couple of weeks, I had clients asking me some version of the same question: "Should I still do this?"

It is a fair question, and the honest answer is that it depends on your situation more than on the headline. So let me walk through what actually happened, what it does and does not mean for your mortgage, and how I am advising buyers and sellers in Seattle right now.

What the Fed Actually Did

The Fed's committee voted unanimously to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter point, to 3.75 to 4 percent. In its statement, the Fed pointed to solid economic growth and inflation that is still running above its 2 percent goal.

Here is the part most people miss: the Fed does not set mortgage rates. The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other overnight. A 30-year mortgage tends to track longer-term bond yields, which move on expectations about inflation and where the economy is headed.

That is why mortgage rates often move before the Fed does. Markets saw this hike coming, and rates were already climbing through September.

Where Mortgage Rates Stand Now

According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the average 30-year fixed rate hit 7.28 percent on October 1, up from 7.03 percent the week before. A year ago, it was 6.34 percent. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60 percent.

Percentages are abstract, so let me put that in dollars. Say you are buying a $900,000 home in Seattle with 20 percent down, which means a $720,000 loan.

• At 6.34 percent (a year ago), principal and interest runs about $4,475 a month.
• At 7.28 percent (today), it runs about $4,926 a month.
• That is roughly $450 more per month, before taxes and insurance.

Put another way, the same monthly payment that bought a $900,000 home a year ago buys roughly $820,000 today. That gap is real, and I do not want to gloss over it.

What This Means If You Are Buying

The hard news first: your buying power is lower than it was a year ago. The more useful news: the market around you has shifted in ways that partly offset that.

Seattle resale inventory has climbed above four months of supply, and pending sales are down from last year. Homes are sitting longer, often in the 35 to 40 day range. Fewer buyers competing means more room to negotiate on price, inspection repairs, and seller credits than we have seen in years.

Here is how I am coaching buyers through it:

1. Rerun your numbers now. A pre-approval from the spring was based on a lower rate. Get updated figures so you are shopping in the right range.
2. Ask for seller credits. A credit used to buy down your interest rate can lower your monthly payment more than a similar cut to the price. Your lender can show you the math side by side.
3. Compare more than one lender. Rates and fees vary, and on a loan this size small differences add up quickly.
4. Do not try to time the bottom. Nobody knows where rates go next. If rates fall later, refinancing may be an option. Today's negotiating leverage may not last if rates drop and buyers come back.

What I tell my clients is simple: buy a home you can comfortably afford at today's rate. Treat any future refinance as a bonus, not a plan.

What This Means If You Are Selling

Higher rates shrink the pool of buyers who can reach your price, and the buyers who remain are more careful. They are comparing more homes and taking their time.

That does not mean you cannot sell well. It means preparation and pricing matter more than they did a few years ago.

• Price for this market, not the spring. Buyers are running the same payment math I showed above. A price that ignores it tends to sit, then get cut.
• Think in monthly payments. Offering a credit toward a rate buydown can make your home more affordable to a buyer without lowering your list price.
• Know your segment. Detached homes in the mid-market are holding up better than condos, which are carrying far more inventory. Your strategy should match the market you are actually in.

What Comes Next

I will not pretend to know where rates will be in six months, and you should be skeptical of anyone who says they do. The Fed has made clear it is watching inflation closely, so more volatility is possible in either direction.

The better question is not "What will rates do?" It is "Does this move make sense for my life and my budget right now?" If you need more space, are relocating for work, or are ready to stop renting, those reasons do not disappear because rates went up. They just mean the plan needs to be sharper.

Let's Talk Through Your Numbers

A rate hike makes headlines, but your decision should come down to your own numbers, your timeline, and what is actually happening in your corner of Seattle. That is the conversation I love having.

If you are weighing a move this fall, reach out. I would be glad to sit down with you, run real numbers with a lender I trust, and help you figure out whether now is the right time for you. My team at Emerald Group and I are here to help you think it through, with no pressure either way.

Ready to buy or sell in Seattle? Brennen Clouse at Emerald Group is here to help. Call or text 206-899-9101 or visit emeraldgroupre.com.